As federal officials begin sending letters to Afghan refugees urging them to prepare to leave the United States, no place in America may feel the impact more than Sacramento County.

According to estimates from the Migration Policy Institute, Sacramento County is home to more Afghan immigrants than any other county in the U.S.—with over 15,000 residents from Afghanistan. That’s more than double the next highest county, Alameda. For decades, Sacramento has served as a safe harbor for families fleeing war, persecution, and Taliban rule.

Many Afghan-owned businesses and communities are concentrated in neighborhoods like North Highlands, Arden-Arcade, and parts of Rancho Cordova. These areas are dotted with Afghan grocery stores, restaurants, and cultural centers that have become staples of local life.

But that sense of safety is under threat.

Reports are surfacing of Afghan parolees receiving notices stating that their temporary status is ending and they should make plans to depart, with limited options for appeal. Many of these individuals arrived after the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul in 2021 and had been allowed to stay under temporary programs—programs now being quietly rolled back.

Supporters of these refugees say many risked everything to support the U.S. mission and now face potential death or imprisonment if returned. Others argue the programs were never meant to be permanent and the legal protections are expiring.

Adding pressure to the moment is the international situation. Last week, Russia formally upgraded diplomatic relations with the Taliban government. The move signaled a new chapter for Afghanistan’s global standing—and raised questions about America’s role. As Russia forges alliances with the regime the U.S. spent two decades fighting, Washington appears to be abandoning the very people who trusted it most.

City and community groups in Sacramento are monitoring the situation closely, with growing concerns that national policy decisions could disrupt thousands of lives locally.

For many Afghan-Americans across the county, the question is whether the promise of protection and refuge will hold—or be erased with the stroke of a pen.